Triggers
01
When you need a turnaround CEO.
If three or more of these match, the window is closing. The fix is not a slide deck. The fix is an operator in the seat.
Warning signs
Sign 01
Cash runway under six months
Test: Can you fund payroll past Q+2 without new capital?
Sign 02
Three consecutive quarters of missed plan
Test: Is the gap to budget widening, not narrowing?
Sign 03
Margin compression with flat or rising revenue
Test: Is the EBITDA falling while the top line holds?
Sign 04
Customer churn rising in the core segment
Test: Did your top decile of clients shrink this year?
Sign 05
Sales pipeline cover below 2.5x
Test: Is the next two quarters of pipeline thin?
Sign 06
CEO has lost the room
Test: Does the management team still believe the plan?
Sign 07
Cost base set for a bigger company
Test: Does your fixed cost reflect last year's revenue, not next year's?
Sign 08
Too many products, too few profitable
Test: Do the top three SKUs make more than 70% of margin?
Sign 09
Marketing spend rising, payback falling
Test: Is marketing-to-revenue above 30% with shrinking LTV?
Sign 10
Board has stopped asking for forecasts
Test: Has the conversation moved from growth to survival?